United Airlines Gives Two 2025 Profit Outlooks, Calling Economy ‘Impossible’ to Predict
By Dana Richards | Aviation Weekly News | April 19, 2025
In a move that has stunned Wall Street analysts and aviation insiders alike, United Airlines has released not one, but two separate profit outlooks for fiscal year 2025—an unprecedented decision the company attributes to what CEO Scott Kirby described as an “impossible” economic landscape.
Speaking at a press conference on Friday morning from United’s Chicago headquarters, Kirby laid bare the airline’s growing frustration with a volatile and contradictory set of economic indicators, a stubbornly unstable geopolitical environment, and what he described as “wild swings” in consumer behavior.
“Never in my 25 years in this industry have I seen anything quite like this,” Kirby said. “We are dealing with an economic environment that is fundamentally unknowable. It would be irresponsible to present a single profit outlook as if we had a clear forecast. So, we’re presenting two.”
Two Futures, One Airline
The two outlooks, dubbed “Scenario Alpha” and “Scenario Delta,” diverge starkly in both tone and projections.
Scenario Alpha, the more optimistic of the two, projects a 2025 net profit of $3.1 billion, assuming continued growth in international demand, a mild inflationary environment, and a stabilizing fuel market. This version of the future envisions sustained strength in transatlantic and transpacific routes, particularly with the upcoming summer travel season and the reopening of key Asian markets.
“We’ve seen strong indicators that business travel is beginning to rebound in full force, especially from the tech and financial sectors,” said Chief Financial Officer Gerry Laderman. “If those trends hold, we’re on track to exceed our pre-pandemic profit levels.”
Scenario Delta, on the other hand, paints a grimmer picture. Under this model, United estimates a net profit of just $600 million—or even a potential net loss of $250 million—should key factors such as oil prices spike, global instability persist, or if a recession takes hold in the U.S. or Europe.
“Frankly, it all hinges on consumer sentiment and macroeconomic variables that shift weekly,” Laderman added. “We’ve never had such wide internal variances.”
Economic Chaos in the Skies
Experts say United’s unorthodox approach may actually reflect a growing sentiment across corporate America. With the Federal Reserve sending mixed signals on interest rates, inflation still above target, and recent military escalations in the Middle East disrupting oil supply chains, forecasting has become more art than science.
“It’s a rare thing to see a Fortune 500 company publicly admit that they’re essentially flying blind,” said Janice Roy, an aviation analyst with Bernstein. “But it’s also refreshingly honest. The economy is throwing curveballs at every turn.”
United’s transparency is not without risk. Wall Street thrives on certainty—or at least the illusion of it. While shares of the airline closed only slightly down on Friday (off 1.3%), some investors expressed unease with the dual-outlook strategy.
“It introduces more questions than it answers,” said Mark Delaney, a portfolio manager at Oakbridge Investments. “Are they hedging their bets? Or do they genuinely have no idea what’s coming next? That’s a red flag.”
Turbulence in Operations
Operationally, United has managed to maintain strong performance metrics, including a 93.2% on-time departure rate for Q1 2025, and customer satisfaction scores that have reached a five-year high. However, looming labor disputes may throw a wrench in its summer plans.
Sources within the Airline Pilots Association (ALPA) confirmed that United pilots are considering a strike vote next month, citing stalled contract negotiations. The union is demanding higher wages and better scheduling flexibility, particularly after what it calls a “grueling” 2024 schedule marked by understaffing and overextension.
“If the economy’s impossible to predict, then so is the labor environment,” said aviation labor expert Dr. Raymond Tibbett. “And the two are connected—if labor costs spike during a downturn, it could throw United’s entire Delta scenario into free fall.”
Global Winds of Change
Outside of domestic concerns, geopolitical tensions are also keeping airline executives on edge. The continuing unrest in the Taiwan Strait has led to multiple route adjustments across East Asia, and United recently suspended its direct flights to Shanghai and Chengdu until at least Q3. Additionally, the rising cost of jet fuel—up 14% since February—has added new urgency to discussions about sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), which remain expensive and in limited supply.
“Fuel is the largest unknown variable right now,” said Kirby. “We’re doing everything we can to hedge, but if Brent crude hits $110 again, all bets are off.”
In the Alpha scenario, fuel costs remain manageable, while in Delta, they spike sharply, forcing United to reduce frequency on some long-haul routes and delay the rollout of its Polaris cabin upgrades across its widebody fleet.
Customer Reactions and Future Moves
For passengers, the economic confusion has already begun to manifest in fluctuating fare prices, inconsistent promotional offers, and uncertainty about future route availability.
“Last week I booked a flight to Rome for $480 round-trip,” said Amanda Reyes, a frequent flyer based in Denver. “This week, the same flight is $940. It’s like the stock market.”
To navigate the turbulence, United plans to introduce dynamic, AI-driven fare models in H2 2025, which will adjust ticket prices in real time based on dozens of data inputs, from jet fuel prices to social media sentiment analysis.
Meanwhile, the company remains cautiously optimistic about its loyalty program, MileagePlus, which continues to grow and now boasts over 110 million members worldwide.
The Bottom Line
Whether United Airlines ends 2025 as a record-breaking success story or a cautionary tale remains to be seen. But its willingness to admit uncertainty—and to model it—may well become a blueprint for other companies grappling with the same economic fog.
“We don’t pretend to have a crystal ball,” Kirby concluded. “But we owe it to our shareholders, our employees, and our passengers to be transparent. The economy may be impossible to predict—but we’re prepared for both the sun and the storm.”
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Editor’s Note: United Airlines will hold its Q2 earnings call on July 28, 2025, where it will offer further insight into which scenario is becoming reality—and whether a third outlook might be necessary.