On draft weekend, Dillon’s safety immediately raised concerns.
After a season in 2019 that was largely successful, the Packers still had a lot of needs.
Despite finishing 17th in passing yards and 15th in rushing yards, the Packers still made it to the NFC Championship game.
In the NFC Championship, the defense had been a weakness, allowing 37 points to the San Francisco 49ers.
When Blake Martinez left, the Packers replaced him at inside linebacker with Christian Kirksey and undrafted rookie free agent Krys Barnes.
With Kevin King manning the cornerback position, the Packers were about to make one final run.
This didn’t seem to be a need since Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams were holding down a consistent backfield.
Just four picks before Antonio Gibson in the second round, the Packers selected Dillon.
Teams chose linebacker Logan Wilson and safety Jeremy Chinn in the vicinity right after Dillon. Drafting a running back made some sense because Williams and Jones were getting close to their contract years, but Dillon was expected to be available in the third to fifth rounds.
At the time it was made, the pick’s value didn’t make much sense, and it hasn’t done particularly well financially.
The Grinder.
At Boston College, Dillon was a highly productive running back. He was successful in that role.
Over the course of three seasons, he was able to average 5 points and 2 yards per carry.
Nevertheless, this had an impact.
For two seasons, Dillon carried the ball 300+ times. Ron Dayne only did that once during his four years at Wisconsin, for comparison.
The highest number of carries for Bijan Robinson was 258.
Although Derrick Henry only had 205 carries in his first two seasons combined, he did have one high carry season at Alabama.
Running backs typically receive fewer carries than other positions, which is the basic idea. There are some statistical analyses that claim that college attendance may not matter, but the overall banging is worrying. Players like Aaron Jones receive carries, but his running style results in more tackles due to trips and glancing blows.
Dillon is definitely a tackle in the face. His size also causes a lot of players to enter at knee and thigh level.
Performance.
In his first season, Dillon faced Tennessee and played his best game.
He amassed 124 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries on a chilly day.
In the past three complete seasons, only one performance with 100+ yards was made.
He has only had two other games with 100+ yards from scrimmage.
For the Lions last season, Jamaal Williams racked up 1,066 yards and 17 touchdowns.
Dillon’s success rate has also decreased to under 50% at this point.
In 2021, he had a 61.0 percent success rate, but in 2022, it was only 56.5 percent.
Dillon has only managed a 42.9% success rate after two games in 2023. Dillon has never been particularly adept at lateral movement.
His style is not to make acute cuts.
Dillon is forced to make plays in space because the Packers’ run game appears to be focused on making plays to the outside, which removes his power from the game.
In addition, Green Bay has insisted on using shotgun formations in situations involving little time left and the goal line.
Again, this makes it impossible for Dillon to descend.
Dillon isn’t the future.
Starting his seventh season as a 28-year-old running back, Aaron Jones,
The next player in the backfield is A.J. Dillon.
He represented the future’s blueprint. Williams was permitted to leave without even being given an offer because of Dillon. Patrick Taylor and Emanuel Wilson are currently sitting with the Packers.
The make-or-break season for Dillon in a contract year is now.
It is highly likely that the Packers will need to completely rebuild the running back room before the 2024 season due to his continued regression. If the Packers want to try to compete in the running game, A.J. Dillon isn’t the solution.