It wouldn’t be Florida State/CFP level chaos, but if you like tiebreaker math and uncertainty in your NFL playoff race, then you want a Dallas Cowboys win on Sunday.
If the 10-2 Philadelphia Eagles beat the 9-3 Cowboys, that practically clinches the NFC East. The Eagles would have a two-game lead and the tiebreaker based on a season sweep. It would also keep the Eagles a game ahead of the 49ers for the very important race to get the No. 1 seed and bye in the NFC.
Everything is up for grabs atop of the NFC if the Cowboys win.
If Dallas wins, the NFC East would be tied with four games to go. The Eagles still wouldn’t be in as bad of shape for the division as you’d think. Dallas has the much tougher remaining schedule, though Philadelphia still has tricky games too. Here’s that breakdown:
Dallas: vs. Bills, at Dolphins, vs. Lions, at Commanders
Philadelphia: at Seahawks, vs. Giants, vs. Cardinals, at Giants
The Eagles are also in good shape with the tiebreaker if they lose Sunday and then both teams win out after that. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head, and they’d split that. Second is record in division games and third is record in common games, and they’d split those as well. The fourth tiebreaker is conference games. The Eagles have one conference loss (two if they lose Sunday) and the Cowboys have three. The Cowboys need the Eagles to get to four losses to win the division.
The Eagles’ grip on the NFC’s top seed would be a lot more tenuous with a loss Sunday. The 49ers are 9-3 and have the tiebreaker over Philadelphia due to last Sunday’s head-to-head win. If the Eagles win out, they’re the No. 1 seed. But one loss would open it up for the 49ers.
The 49ers have some potential losses in the upcoming schedule (vs. Seahawks, at Cardinals, vs. Ravens, at Commanders, vs. Rams) but it’s also possible they win out, especially with the Ravens game at home. The 49ers also should be OK in a three-way tie if the Lions stay in the top seed race, due to a 7-1 conference record.
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